How every number is produced
Methodology
Definitions, formulas, inputs, refresh cadence, assumptions and limitations for every BitcoinTrench-derived metric.
The commitment
BitcoinTrench publishes the formula for everything it calculates itself. Where a figure comes from a provider, the provider is named. Where a figure is an estimate, it is labelled and its uncertainty is stated. If a number cannot be produced honestly, BitcoinTrench says the metric is unavailable rather than substituting something that looks plausible.
Derived from consensus rules
Calculations that need no provider.
Block subsidy
Subsidy at height h is 50 × 10⁸ ÷ 2^⌊h ÷ 210000⌋ satoshis, floored to an integer, reaching exactly zero after 33 halvings. This mirrors Bitcoin Core’s own integer arithmetic rather than approximating it with floating point.
Total issuance
Summed across every completed halving epoch plus the blocks mined in the current one. This is protocol issuance: what the rules permit at this height. It sits slightly above observed circulating supply because some miners claimed less than their block allowed, and BitcoinTrench reports both figures rather than merging them.
Halving projection
Blocks remaining × 600 seconds gives the target-interval estimate. Where a recent observed interval is available, a second projection uses that instead. Both are shown, both are labelled projections, and neither is presented as a date the network has committed to.
Difficulty projection
The observed interval for the blocks mined so far this epoch is extrapolated across all 2,016, then difficulty is scaled by target timespan ÷ projected timespan and clamped to Bitcoin’s ×4 limit. Early in an epoch this rests on very few blocks, and the page says so.
Implied hashrate
difficulty × 2³² ÷ 600 hashes per second. Hashrate cannot be measured directly — it is inferred from how quickly blocks are found at a known difficulty, which makes every hashrate figure statistical rather than observed.
Hashprice
Daily network revenue (subsidy + observed fees over the last 144 blocks, valued at the live price) divided by network hashrate in petahashes. It describes gross revenue per unit of work, and takes no account of electricity, hardware or hosting costs.
Conditions briefing
The homepage summary, and how it is written.
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BitcoinTrench indicators
Every input, weight and breakpoint.
These are the only numbers on the platform that BitcoinTrench invents. Each one is shown below with its live value and the whole of its definition — components, weights, the published mapping from observation to score, how to read it, and where it fails.
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Design rules
Constraints these indicators are built under.
- Every input is publicly observable and named in the payload the interface receives.
- Every mapping is an explicit piecewise function published here — no fitted parameters, no hidden weights, no lookahead.
- Components that cannot be computed are dropped and the remaining weights renormalised, rather than being filled with a default.
- Every indicator describes present network conditions. None is a price forecast, a trading signal, or a claim about future returns.
- Breakpoints are editorial choices, stated as such. They were not fitted to historical outcomes, which is exactly why they cannot be back-tested into a strategy.
Freshness
What each label means.
| Label | Meaning |
|---|---|
| live | Streamed or fetched within the metric’s refresh window. The freshest state this metric has. |
| cached | Served from cache and still inside its intended lifetime. Accurate as of the age shown. |
| stale · retrying | The refresh failed. The last good value is being shown with its age, and retries continue in the background. |
| derived | Calculated by BitcoinTrench from consensus rules and live observations, using the formulas above. |
| unavailable | No provider responded and no usable cached value exists. Nothing is displayed in place of the number. |
"Live" is used only for genuinely live or near-real-time data. Slow-moving datasets — Lightning statistics, the sentiment index, corporate filings — are labelled with their real cadence rather than dressed up as real time. See every source and its refresh policy.